2019, Volume 72 - Issue 3
RSS feed citation: At RePEc
Publication date: 26 August 2019
THE PHILLIPS CURVE: UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS AND NAIRU ESTIMATES OF POLAND’S ECONOMYRead the article
A LINK OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BETWEEN TAIWAN AND THE UNITED STATESRead the article
HIGHER EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF WORLD REGIONS TRAJECTORIESRead the article
Pavlos STAMATIOU, Department of Accounting and Finance, Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, Kozani, Greece
Chaido DRITSAKI, Department of Accounting and Finance, Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, Kozani, Greece
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, in the case of Poland over the period 1992-2017, within the Phillips curve context. For the long-term equilibrium relationship and the causal relationship of the examined variables, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and the causality approach of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) are applied, as the most appropriate for the sample size and the integration of the variables. The results of the study revealed that there is a long run relation between unemployment rate and the inflation rate for Poland, for the aforementioned period. In addition, the causality results indicated a unidirectional relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate, with direction from unemployment to inflation. Finally, to forecast the model variables, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition method are applied. The results for a 10-year forecasting period indicated that shocks in unemployment rate cause a decrease on inflation rate for the first years, followed by a steady increase for the remaining years. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.
C22, C32, E31, E50
Inflation, Unemployment, NAIRU, Phillips Curve, Poland, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Cointegration Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test, Variance Decomposition, Impulse Response Function
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