Contents of the volume

2019, Volume 72 - Issue 3

ISSN: 2499-8265
RSS feed citation: At RePEc
Publication date: 26 August 2019


Richard J. Cebula

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Pavlos Stamatiou, Chaido Dritsaki

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Tsai-Lun Cho, Cheng-Wen Lee

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Jabrane Amaghouss, Aomar Ibourk

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Mduduzi Biyase, Mokgadi Maleka

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Genoa Chamber of Commerce
Economia Internazionale / International Economics

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Corresponding author

Pavlos STAMATIOU, Department of Accounting and Finance, Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, Kozani, Greece


Chaido DRITSAKI, Department of Accounting and Finance, Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, Kozani, Greece

The Phillips Curve: Unemployment Dynamics and Nairu Estimates of Poland’s Economy




The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, in the case of Poland over the period 1992-2017, within the Phillips curve context. For the long-term equilibrium relationship and the causal relationship of the examined variables, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and the causality approach of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) are applied, as the most appropriate for the sample size and the integration of the variables. The results of the study revealed that there is a long run relation between unemployment rate and the inflation rate for Poland, for the aforementioned period. In addition, the causality results indicated a unidirectional relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate, with direction from unemployment to inflation. Finally, to forecast the model variables, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition method are applied. The results for a 10-year forecasting period indicated that shocks in unemployment rate cause a decrease on inflation rate for the first years, followed by a steady increase for the remaining years. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.

JEL classification

C22, C32, E31, E50


Inflation, Unemployment, NAIRU, Phillips Curve, Poland, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Cointegration Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test, Variance Decomposition, Impulse Response Function


  1. Introduction
  2. Literature review
  3. Correlation beween inflation and unemployment
  4. Materials and methods
  5. Empirical results
  6. Conclusions and policy implications


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