Contents of the volume

2017, Volume 70 - Issue 4

ISSN: 2499-8265
RSS feed citation: At RePEc
Publication date: 20 October 2017

SECULAR STAGNATION: IS IT IN THE DATA?

Dimitris Kirikos

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INCOME INEQUALITY AND GROWTH: NEW INSIGHTS FROM ITALY

Bernard Njindan Iyke, Sin-Yu HO

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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, EXPORTS, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NEW EU MEMBERS – A PANEL DATA APPROACH

Nicholaos Dritsakis, Pavlos Stamatiou

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IS REAL DEPRECIATION OR MORE GOVERNMENT DEBT CONTRACTIONARY? THE CASE OF ROMANIA

Yu Hsing

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HEDGE FUNDS: A POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Cameron J. Gable, Shalendra Sharma

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REASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES IN POLAND: EVIDENCE FROM A MULTICOINTEGRATION APPROACH

Marco Tronzano

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THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INCOME INEQUALITY AND HEALTH IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES

Stephen Foreman

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Genoa Chamber of Commerce
Economia Internazionale / International Economics

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Corresponding author

Dimitris KIRIKOS, University of Applied Sciences Crete (TEI Crete), Department of Accounting and Finance, Heraklion Greece and Hellenic Open University, Greece

Secular Stagnation: Is it in the Data?

Pages

411-418

Abstract

The anemic recovery of advanced economies, after eight years into the great recession, has recently been attributed to the persistent slump in demand and its effects on long-run growth rates through hysteresis effects.  If adverse secular trends are at work, then the data should show that the long-run growth rate has shifted to a lower level.  Hence, using a simple Markov switching regimes model, we investigate whether the growth rate of potential GDP has exhibited a persistent switch, based on OECD data for nine economies over the period 1990-2017.  It turns out that, in all cases, potential GDP growth is characterized by switching dynamics and this provides necessary evidence that secular stagnation cannot be ruled out empirically.

JEL classification

E30, E32

Keywords

Secular Stagnation, Switching Regimes, Long-Run Growth

Index

  1. Introduction
  2. The model
  3. Data and results
  4. Concluding remarks
     

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