2017, Volume 70 - Issue 4
RSS feed citation: At RePEc
Publication date: 20 October 2017
INCOME INEQUALITY AND GROWTH: NEW INSIGHTS FROM ITALYRead the article
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, EXPORTS, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NEW EU MEMBERS – A PANEL DATA APPROACHRead the article
IS REAL DEPRECIATION OR MORE GOVERNMENT DEBT CONTRACTIONARY? THE CASE OF ROMANIARead the article
REASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES IN POLAND: EVIDENCE FROM A MULTICOINTEGRATION APPROACHRead the article
Yu HSING, Department of Management & Business Administration, College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA, USA
Applying the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model, this paper finds that Romania’s real GDP is positively associated with real appreciation of the leu during 2005.Q2 – 2013.Q4, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by real appreciation of the leu during 2014.Q1 – 2016.Q3, government debt as a percent of GDP, the real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. These results suggest that recent real depreciation of the leu would help raise real GDP, whereas recent rising government debt as a percent of GDP would be harmful to real GDP.
Exchange Rates, Government Debt, Interest Rates, Oil Prices, Wages
Abraham, K.G. and J.C. Haltiwanger (1995), “Real Wages and the Business Cycle”, Journal of Economic Literature, 33(3), 1215-1264.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and A.M. Kutan (2008), “Are Devaluations Contractionary in Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe?”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 41(1), 61-74.
Barro, R.J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
Barro, R.J. (1989), “The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 37-54.
Castle, J.L. and D.F. Hendry (2014), “The Real Wage-Productivity Nexus”, VOX CPER’s Policy Portal, January 13, <http://voxeu.org/article/real-wage-productivity-nexus>
Cebula, R.J. (1997), “An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long Term Interest Rates, 1973-1995”, Southern Economic Journal, 63(4), 1094-1099.
Cebula, R.J. (2014a), “Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer-Term Real Interest Rate in the US: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013”, Applied Economics Quarterly, 60(1), 23-40.
Cebula, R.J. (2014b), “An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of US Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-Term Treasury Issues. 1972–2012”, Applied Economics, 46(28), 3483-3493.
Cebula, R.J. and P. Cuellar (2010), “Recent Evidence on the Impact of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Moody’s Baa-Rated Corporate Bonds”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 34(3), 301-307.
Cebula, R.J., F. Angjellari-Dajci and M. Foley (2014), “An Exploratory Empirical Inquiry into The Impact of Federal Budget Deficits on the Ex Post Real Interest Rate Yield on Ten Year Treasury Notes over the Last Half Century”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 38(4), 712-720.
Chiang, A.C. and K. Wainwright (2005), Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, McGraw-Hill, Irwin Economics: Boston.
Darrat, A.F. (1989), “Fiscal Deficits and Long-Term Interest Rates: Further Evidence from Annual Data”, Southern Economic Journal, 56(2), 363-373.
Darrat, A.F. (1990), “Structural Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: Some Causality and Cointegration Tests”, Southern Economic Journal, 56(3), 752-759.
Eurostat (2017), European Commission, Brussels, Belgium.
Feldstein, M. (1982), “Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 9(1), 1-20.
Findlay, D. W. (1990), “Budget Deficits, Expected Inflation and Short-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence for the US”, International Economic Journal, 4(3), 41-53.
Gupta, K.L. (1989), “Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the US”, Public Choice, 60(1), 87-92.
Hamilton, J.D. (1996), “This is what Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220.
Hoelscher, G. (1986), “New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 1-17.
IMF (2016), “Romania: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania”, International Monetary Fund Country Report No. 16/113, May 16.
International Financial Statistics (2017), International Monetary Fund: Washington, DC.
Kilian, L. (2008a), “The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks”, Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 871-909.
Kilian, L. (2008b), “Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market”, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5994.
McMillin, W.D. (1986), “Federal Deficits and Short-Term Interest Rates”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 8(4), 403-422.
Mills, T.C. and E.J. Pentecost (2001), “The Real Exchange Rate and the Output Response in Four EU Accession Countries”, Emerging Markets Review, 2(4), 418-430.
Mishkin, F.S. (2012), Macroeconomics: Policy and Practice, Addison-Wesley: Boston.
Mitchell, A. and E.J. Pentecost (2001), The Real Exchange Rate and the Output Response in Four Transition Economies: A Panel Data Study, in: C. Papazoglou, E.J. Pentecost (Eds), “Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response”, pp. 68-77, Palgrave Macmillan: UK.
Miteza, I. (2006), “Devaluation and Output in Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania, 1993-2000”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(1), 77-86.
Narayan, P.K. and R. Smyth (2009), “The Effect of Inflation and Real Wages on Productivity: New Evidence from A Panel of G7 Countries”, Applied Economics, 41(10), 1285-1291.
Nelson, D.B. (1991), “Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach”, Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.
Ostrosky, A.L. (1990), “Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: Comment”, Southern Economic Journal, 56(3), 802-803.
Spencer, D. (2015), “Higher Real Wages Would Raise Productivity and Boost Demand”, The London School of Economics and Political Science. <http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/higher-real-wages-for-workers-in-britain-would-raise-productivity-and-boost-demand/>.