Indice del volume

2019, Volume 72 - Issue 3

ISSN: 2499-8265
Citationi RSS feed: At RePEc
Data di pubblicazione: 26 agosto 2019


Richard J. Cebula

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Pavlos Stamatiou, Chaido Dritsaki

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Tsai-Lun Cho, Cheng-Wen Lee

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Jabrane Amaghouss, Aomar Ibourk

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Mduduzi Biyase, Mokgadi Maleka

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Camera di Commercio di Genova
Economia Internazionale / International Economics

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Autore corrispondente

Pavlos STAMATIOU, Department of Accounting and Finance, Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, Kozani, Greece


Chaido DRITSAKI, Department of Accounting and Finance, Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, Kozani, Greece

The Phillips Curve: Unemployment Dynamics and Nairu Estimates of Poland’s Economy




La curva di Phillips: dinamiche di disoccupazione e stime Nairu dell’economia polacca

Il fine di questo studio è analizzare la relazione tra inflazione e tasso di disoccupazione in Polonia nel periodo 1992-2017, nel contesto della curva di Phillips. Per testare la relazione di lungo periodo e la relazione causale delle variabili esaminate è stata applicata la tecnica ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) di Pesaran et al. (2001) e quella con approccio di causalità di Toda e Yamamoto (1995), considerate le più appropriate per dimensione del campione e integrazione delle variabili. I risultati degli studi evidenziano che c’è una relazione di lungo periodo tra tasso di disoccupazione e inflazione in Polonia, nel periodo considerato. Inoltre, i risultati di causalità indicano una relazione unidirezionale tra tasso di disoccupazione e inflazione, con direzione disoccupazione verso inflazione. Infine per fare previsioni sulle variabili del modello, sono state applicate le funzioni di risposta agli impulsi e il metodo di scomposizione della varianza. I risultati di previsione a 10 anni indicano che gli shock nel tasso di disoccupazione causano un decremento sul tasso di inflazione per i primi anni, seguito da un incremento costante nei successivi. Le implicazioni politiche sono esposte nelle conclusioni.

Classificazione JEL

C22, C32, E31, E50

Parole chiave

Inflation, Unemployment, NAIRU, Phillips Curve, Poland, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Cointegration Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test, Variance Decomposition, Impulse Response Function

Indice dell'articolo

  1. Introduction
  2. Literature review
  3. Correlation beween inflation and unemployment
  4. Materials and methods
  5. Empirical results
  6. Conclusions and policy implications


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